Last goalscorer sits alongside first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer as one of football’s three classic scorer markets. You are betting on which player will score the final goal of the match. It sounds like a mirror image of first goalscorer, but it behaves quite differently because you cannot know a goal is the last one until the whistle blows. That single quirk changes the strategy, the rules, and the mistakes people make. This guide walks through it honestly.

What the market is

The last goalscorer market asks who scores the final goal of the game. Every likely player is priced, plus a “no goalscorer” option that wins if the match finishes goalless. Because any goal could turn out to be the last one, the bet stays live for your player right up until full time — even a stoppage-time strike settles it. That makes late substitutes and attacking players who stay on the pitch particularly relevant, which is a big contrast with first goalscorer where early involvement is everything.

If you are new to how football scorer markets connect, our football betting guide sets out the wider picture.

How it is priced

Prices are built from a player’s goal threat, position, penalty and set-piece duties, and their likely time on the pitch, especially late in the game. A striker expected to play the full 90 minutes will be priced shorter than one likely to be substituted on the hour. Like first goalscorer, this market carries a high overround — the implied probabilities across all players sum well above 100%, so the margin is heavier than in standard markets. Long odds on an individual look tempting, but they reflect how many outcomes are possible, not a bargain. Comparing books with our odds tools is worth the effort here, because margins on scorer markets vary a lot between bookmakers.

Substitutes who come on to chase or protect a lead are a genuine angle, since a late-game specialist is more likely to be on the pitch when the last goal arrives.

Format and rules effects

The rules differ from first goalscorer in an important way. Because you cannot predict which goal will be last, there is no stake refund if your player is substituted early — the bet simply runs and loses if someone else scores after they leave. Own goals are ignored: if the final goal is an own goal, settlement usually falls to the last legitimate scorer before it. In a 0-0 match, only the “no goalscorer” option can win. Game state matters too — a team defending a narrow lead may pull attackers off, while a chasing side throws players forward, shifting who is likely to score late.

Late red cards, defensive substitutions, and time-wasting all influence how the closing minutes play out, so the flow of the game is as relevant as the team sheet.

Common mistakes

The most common error is treating last goalscorer like first goalscorer and expecting a refund on early subs — it does not work that way. Another is ignoring game context: backing an attacker whose team is likely to be defending a lead late on, when the goals will more probably come from the chasing side. People also over-value their favourite striker and overlook fresh substitutes brought on precisely to score in the closing stages. And, as with all scorer markets, the high margin means stacking these into accumulators erodes value fast.

Honesty note

Last goalscorer is a fun, high-margin entertainment market — not a route to reliable profit. The variance is high, the overround is heavy, and even a sharp read on the game can be undone by a stoppage-time deflection. There is nothing wrong with a small stake on a player you fancy to score late, but keep it in proportion and do not chase losses across multiple legs. Steadier football markets give you a fairer long-term run. Stake modestly, understand the settlement rules before you commit, and make sure it always stays enjoyable. For grounding and support, see our responsible gambling resources, and use our list of licensed bookmakers to bet somewhere safe.

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