What is a penalty bet?

A penalty bet is a wager on whether a penalty kick will be awarded or scored in a match, or on outcomes of a penalty shootout. Common versions include 'penalty awarded in the match' and shootout markets in knockout ties.

Do shootout penalties count toward normal penalty markets?

Usually not. Most 'penalty in the match' and 'penalty scored' markets settle on 90 minutes only, excluding extra time and the shootout. Shootouts are covered by separate markets. Always confirm the settlement terms.

Are penalty markets more random than other bets?

Penalty awards depend on rare, unpredictable in-match events like fouls in the box and refereeing decisions, so they carry high variance. That randomness is reflected in the odds, and it makes these markets especially hard to forecast.

Penalty Betting Explained: How the Market Works

What the penalty market is

Penalty markets cover a family of bets built around the penalty kick. The most common is “will a penalty be awarded in this match?” — a yes/no wager settled on whether the referee points to the spot at any point in regular play. Others include “penalty to be scored,” “penalty to be missed or saved,” and, in knockout football, a range of penalty shootout markets such as which team advances on penalties or the number of successful kicks.

These are among the more speculative markets a bookmaker offers, because a penalty award hinges on a single refereeing decision that may or may not happen. That is very different from a goals or result market, where the outcome accumulates over 90 minutes. A penalty market can be settled by one incident — or by the incident never occurring at all.

For how these sit alongside the core football markets, our football betting guide gives the wider picture before you get into niche ones like this.

How penalty markets are priced

Bookmakers price penalty markets from base rates rather than fine prediction. They look at how often penalties are awarded in the relevant league and referee context, adjust for the two teams’ tendencies to win or concede spot-kicks, and derive an implied probability that a penalty appears in the match.

Historically, penalties are awarded in a minority of matches — the exact share varies by competition and by how refereeing standards and VAR are applied. Because the base rate is well below 50%, “penalty awarded — yes” is often the longer side of the market, and “no penalty” the favourite. VAR is a genuine variable here: in leagues that review incidents closely, marginal handballs and box fouls can be overturned in either direction, and bookmakers factor the prevailing officiating environment into their lines.

As with any market with a limited number of outcomes, an overround is built into the two-way price. Comparing across operators still matters — our reviews and best betting sites pages flag where these markets are offered and priced sensibly.

How rules and format shape the market

Settlement scope is the single most important thing to check, because penalty markets are unusually sensitive to it. Most “penalty in the match” markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. A penalty in extra time, or the entire shootout, typically does not count toward that market — those are separate bets. Getting this wrong is one of the easiest ways to misunderstand a settled result.

Shootout markets follow their own rules. They only exist for ties that can reach a shootout, and they settle on the shootout outcome specifically. Format therefore defines what is even available: a straight league match will not offer shootout markets, while a knockout cup tie will. Refereeing appointment, VAR usage, and each team’s style all feed the underlying probability, but they are context the model has already priced — not a route to a winner.

Common mistakes

The biggest mistake is treating penalty markets as predictable. A penalty award is a rare, single-event outcome driven by refereeing judgement; it is close to impossible to forecast reliably, and betting on it is high-variance by nature.

A second mistake is confusing “match” penalty markets with shootout markets. They settle on completely different phases of the game. Backing “penalty scored” expecting it to cover a dramatic shootout will lead to a losing or void settlement you did not anticipate.

A third is in-play chasing. Penalty markets update fast during a match, and it is easy to keep restaking on “next penalty” or similar bets as the game swings. That pace can pull people into betting more than they intended.

An honesty note

We do not sell penalty tips or predictions, and there is no dependable way to forecast a refereeing decision. This guide explains how the market works and where the settlement traps are — it does not give you an edge, and these markets are among the most variance-heavy on the board. Penalty betting is entertainment with real money at stake, and the house margin is always present.

Set your stake before you bet, treat it as the price of the fun, and never stake money you cannot afford to lose. The fast, single-event nature of penalty markets makes them easy to chase, so if you feel that pull, stop. Our responsible gambling page has tools for limits, timeouts and self-exclusion.

18+. Gambling involves real financial risk. If it stops being fun, take a break — play responsibly.