What a tissue price means

A tissue price is an early estimate of the true odds for the runners or teams in an event, drawn up before the betting market has fully formed. It is a working forecast made by a bookmaker’s trader, a tipster or a sharp bettor, showing what they think each outcome’s fair chance is.

The name comes from the flimsy tissue paper on which early price forecasts were traditionally written — a hint that these are provisional numbers, expected to be revised as money and information arrive.

Crucially, a tissue is usually an estimate of fair odds or a starting book, not the final price you will be offered. The actual market price then moves around it as bets come in.

A worked example

Suppose a trader compiles a tissue for a two-horse-style market and rates the outcomes:

  • Selection A: fair chance 50% → tissue 2.00
  • Selection B: fair chance 50% → tissue 2.00

That is a “fair” 100% book. In practice the bookmaker then adds margin, so the prices actually offered might be 1.90 and 1.90 — a book totalling more than 100%. The difference between the tissue and the offered price is where the margin lives. You can see how that margin is built with our margin calculator, and turn your own probability estimates into fair odds with our odds tools.

Why it matters

Tissue prices sit at the heart of value betting:

  • Traders use tissues to set opening lines and to know how far a price can move before it becomes a liability.
  • Value bettors build their own tissue — their honest estimate of fair odds — and compare it with the market. If the offered price is bigger than their tissue, that is a potential value bet; if smaller, they pass. See value betting explained and how to find value bets.
  • The gap between tissue and market also reveals where the crowd disagrees with the sharp view.

The honest downside

  • A tissue is only as good as the person making it. Your estimate can simply be wrong, and being “confident” in a tissue does not make it accurate.
  • Overconfidence is dangerous. If your tissue is systematically too generous, you will convince yourself losing bets are value.
  • The market is often right. Efficient markets, especially close to the off, usually price things well. Beating a tissue against a sharp closing line is genuinely hard — see closing line value explained.
  • It does not remove the margin. Even a perfect tissue cannot change the fact the bookmaker builds an edge into the offered price.

A tissue is a discipline tool: it forces you to decide what a fair price is before you see the market. Just be honest about how often your estimate is the one that is off.

Build your own tissue, then compare it against prices at our best betting sites. And keep staking disciplined with our responsible gambling tools.

18+. Gambling involves real financial risk. If it stops being fun, take a break — play responsibly.